Numbers

For whatever reason, I've been having a large number of conversations about retired numbers lately. From students trying to get me on a tangent by asking who they all are to discussions about whether Pedro Martinez' return on Opening Day was a play to get 45 on the facade, the frequency of the topic has gotten me thinking about what the next number retired would be. So, instead of the usual recriminations or wishful thoughts on the 2010 campaign, I wanted to run down the top 5 candidates in order of what I think is their likelihood of retirement. I don't expect everyone to agree, but it should spark some interesting conversation.

The current list stands at 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 14, and 27 (along with Jackie Robinson's 42). Bobby Doerr, Joe Cronin, Johnny Pesky, Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, Jim Rice and Carlton Fisk -- as good a rundown of Red Sox greats as you can get. Hall of Famers all, aside from Pesky, who represents a special case. The restrictions on retirement have been eased by current ownership, and the rules are now a bit fuzzy; it used to be that a player had to begin and finish a Hall of Fame career with the Sox. That seems to no longer be the case, despite a few acrobatic moves to get Fisk there. So, with that in mind, here is my list of five, along with their numbers, chances and qualifications.

The Future Holds many Questions for the Red Sox Catching — And Hopefully an Answer

Fact: As a catcher, Victor Martinez makes a good first baseman – and a D.H.

Fact: Jason Varitek, at 38, is on the down side of a once brilliant career. Fact: Both players’ contracts expire after the 2010 season. Question: Who will comprise the next generation of Red Sox catchers? Will it be either Pawtucket catcher Mark Wagner or Dusty Brown, each of whom is on Boston’s 40-man roster? Or will it be one – or both – of Boston’s very best catcher prospects, Luis Exposito or Tim Federowicz?

Daniel Nava: From Washing Uniforms… to Wearing One

"I think one word comes to mind when you’re talking about Daniel and that’s perseverance,” said PawSox manager Torey Lovullo. “The idea that he was under-sized, stuck with it, had a love for baseball and had a passion for staying with it … there isn’t a greater story in our clubhouse because he’s had the toughest road to get here. “I’ve heard him say he was under five-feet and 100 pounds in high school (Nava is a native of Redwood City, Calif.) and got cut from several baseball teams. Now, he’s square in the middle of a lineup for Boston’s Triple-A club. It’s a fairly minor miracle considering what he’s gone through.”

A Little Perspective

As of this writing Tuesday evening, the 2010 Red Sox stand 20 games into their season. With a record of 9-11, the Red Sox sit in fourth place in the AL East, and this is already the latest they've been under .500 since 1996 (a season in which they finished with a respectable but not quality 85-77 record, and third place in the division). They rank 11th in the majors in runs scored (which is a somewhat surprising standing, all things considered) and an almost unthinkable 28th in the majors in runs allowed -- only the Reds and Pirates have been worse (quick aside: the Pirates have managed to be outscored this season by an astonishing 85 runs, which comes out to an average of over 4 runs per game... so it could be worse). By all accounts, this season has begun worse than any in the current era of Red Sox teams.

How much weight, though, can we put on 20 games? Can a team that has been as hopelessly bad as the Red Sox have been, over this long a stretch, possibly compete in the division or for the championship? To find out, I decided to look back at some of the strongest Red Sox teams in recent memory (and one incredibly strong non-Red Sox team) and compare this 20 game stretch to the worst ones I could find. Now, before I go into the details, I know that I'm cherry-picking below. I also know that I can't equate the first 20 games of a season with a similar stretch later in the year in terms of their emotional impact. However, 20 games are 20 games in the standings, and these first 20 count just as much as the last 20 or a stretch of games in July and August. So knowing that this is all kinds of imperfect but that it's also at least worth thinking about, let's proceed.

Fixing J.D. Drew, Darnell Who?, Hermida Behind the Plate?

What Needs to Happen: JD Drew The bad starts just keep piling up… and keep continuing, causing some real problems in the lineup and some real frustration for the millions of Fenway Faithful. J.D. Drew’s poor April just keeps on coming, which has only added to the ineptitude and futility of the 2010 Boston lineup. Still, while fans may have already begun clamoring for an overhaul, Drew's April has all the earmarkings of a really bad, persistent slump - one that can ridden out with a patient couple weeks. When players go through stretches like Drew has, at his age no less, the primary questions that tend to be asked are 1) is the player hurt? 2) is he seeing the ball well enough or just putting poor swings on the ball? and 3) is he getting old?

Lester’s Early Struggles

For the second straight start this year, Jon Lester has looked quite unlike the pitcher we've come to rely on over the past two seasons. As Troy pointed out in yesterday's quick post, Lester's control has been fairly poor to this point, though his velocity has been essentially what we expected. It's concerning, to be sure, but it's also not very far out of line with what we've seen from Lester in the past, and it's worth taking a look at Lester's previous Aprils and Mays to get a sense of whether this is a trend or an outlier.

First, though, a quick aside. I was in the stands for Lester's no-hitter in May of 2008, and what's interesting about that start is less the run of dominance he began afterward, and more the shakiness he'd experienced before it. At the time, Lester was not an ace - he was a feel-good story of a prospect, coming off cancer and a win in the deciding game of 2004. So when he began mowing them down the night of May 19, the feeling was more one of a young pitcher finally finding his stride than a pitcher settling into a season. In April of 2008, Lester posted an opponent's line of .260/.361/.425 and a K/BB ratio of a mere 0.96; he would finish that season at a much more impressive .256/.320/.368 with a K/BB of 2.30 - over twice as strong as in April. He also began going deeper into games, striking out more batters, and keeping the ball in the park at a better rate. What's especially interesting here is that the rest of his components - everything from BABIP to LD/GB/FB percentages - remained the same, with only his walk rate and the actual batting results really experiencing any kind of change.

Scheduling Highlights

With opening day less than one month (wooo!) away, I wanted to highlight some points in the season to pay a little more attention to. Every season has easy stretches, tough road trips, and high leverage situations. Monday April 12th @ Minnesota The Red Sox play guests of honor at the home opener of Target Field, the new home of the Minnesota Twins. With no contract yet in sight, story-lines will surround the possibility of Joe Mauer's final year with the Twins, and the coincidence that a potential suitor rolls into town on the heels of stalled or cancelled negotiations. Also, speculations of Target Field's park factors will be begin to arise. While rumor has it that Target Field is not going to repeat an opening month full of laughable power as Yankee Stadium did last year, the park's dimensions should be favorable for Minnesota's right handed power bats. Keep an eye on Cuddyer in fantasy drafts.

Casey Fien addition worth another look

Monday saw the Red Sox claim Casey Fien from the Detroit Tigers. Of little note is the dropping of Gaby Hernandez to clear a spot. I am a bit shocked to see a pitcher with such solid peripherals in the minors given up on by the Tigers. Perhaps there is something they know, but let's see what Fien adds to the Red Sox. He's a two pitch reliever with a 91 mph fastball and a 80 mph slider thrown 25% of the time. His slider did not show well in his small sampling with a run value of -5.47 per hundred thrown, but a much bigger sample is needed to decide if it needs work. This isn't very exciting as his speed isn't great and with only two pitches hitters can just wait out the fastball. His minor league numbers though show he has something to contribute. His ERA in the minors stands at 3.04 and 3.21 in Triple-A. Obviously as a reliever his sample sizes are small, but a minor league FIP of 2.86 and 3.20 in Triple-A. Then why would the Tigers give up on Fien as a reliever?

The All-80s Players

Fooled you! Anyway, they only 80s I wanted to talk about were the 80 million dimes given to Johnny Damon by the Detroit Tigers, and how it relates to our favorite rivals 210 miles south. Personally, I was hoping teams would continue to stonewall Damon. With his declining defense, girl-scout level throwing power, and offensive season fueled by a short right field in Yankee Stadium III, the possibility that he couldn't even scrape by a $5M deal was fueling my schadenfreude. My guess was that he'd eventually cave to Kenny Williams' $4M deal the White Sox offered. This deal by the Tigers seems panicked, at best. After trading away Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for prospects, I understand the need to restock the outfield to replace Granderson. However, I'm very curious about the timing.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell

Mike Lowell was the proud winner of the All-Aughts Team of the Decade honorable mention at 30 percent of the vote, and its easy to see why. After all, Lowell not only has provided above-average offensive seasons each year he wore the Boston uniform (and sans 2009, excellent fielding seasons) but his character is off the charts and he nabbed the 2007 World Series MVP award. Lowell came to Boston after being exiled from Florida following a year where he posted an obscene (in a bad way) .658 OPS, showing no ability to make contact and a lack of power. For the Red Sox to get ace Josh Beckett, Lowell was forced upon them. No one seriously thought Lowell would be worth his salt despite it being just one year. Lowell found Fenway Park to his liking in 2006 albeit on a team that collapsed late and missed the playoffs. His 47 doubles were a career high, and he set a career high the following year in a different category: RBI. That was the year of 2007, when Lowell stepped up amongst injury and attrition -- 31 games batting fourth, 17 fifth and 101 sixth -- and became a feared middle of the order hitter. His doubles sank to 37, but he popped 21 home runs and hit .324, the first and only time his batting average has been over .300 in a season.