Only Two Years for Victor Martinez

Last week in this space, the Red Sox winter to-do list was laid out. The most important was to   resolve…

Constructing the best lineup to get to October

The Red Sox ended up splitting their four-game series in the Bronx Monday with a 2-1 win. While it was pitching that won the game, it was a small change in lineup construction that could pay dividends over the last two months, should it stick. However, along with hitting Ellsbury ninth, there are other ways to re-work the Red Sox lineup and maximize their run scoring potential

Marco Scutaro has done a fine job filling in as the leadoff hitter for the majority of the season and Dustin Pedroia may be back next week. Once Pedroia returns, his best fit would be at leadoff as he is second on the the Sox in OBP (just under Adrian Beltre, who's OBP is mostly due to his AVG) and pitches per plate appearance (which comes into play later). Pedroia and Scutaro at the top of the order provide plenty of contact and good OBP. That, hopefully more often than not, sets the stage for Adrian Beltre--hitting third--to take the same approach he has all season and David Ortiz to swing for the fences in the cleanup spot.

The DL All-Stars

Kevin Youkilis left last night's game in the 4th inning with an ankle injury. At the moment, it appears he'll be fine -- the word out of Fenway is that he'll be in the lineup tonight. Still, the sight of Youk leaving the game yesterday must have caused remotes across New England to be flung in exasperated disgust as the injury bug appeared to claim another key player on this 2010 Red Sox team. In recounting the injuries that have plagued the club this year, it occurs to me that we could field a fairly talented club solely from our DL. In order to find out exactly how good, I decided to draw up a lineup (nine offensive positions, two starters, a setup man, and a closer) and see how well it would stack up given their projected 2010 WAR (I'm using CHONE projections for batters because they're the easiest to find, but the estimates shouldn't be too far afield; for pitchers it's a bit tricky, but I'll resort to using fangraphs.com's fan projections -- imperfect, but close enough). This is obviously a thought experiment more than anything else, but it's interesting to see exactly how much talent the Sox have lost so far this season.

Prospective Additions and the BoSox’ AL East Title Chances

There’s no doubt the Sox recent injuries have done a number on the club’s chances of winning the AL East. So we thought it would be interesting to uncover how bleak -- or rosy -- the those chances have become. Prior to the slew of injuries that befell Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia, and Jason Varitek, Baseball Prospectus had the Sox at about a 99-win team with an 853-702 scoring differential. That team, with the current standings, would have won the division about 38 percent of the time -- a solid second best to the Yankees' expected title rate of 45 percent. The Devil Rays take the cake about 18 percent of the time while the Blue Jays and Orioles are almost nowhere to be seen. But that was a different team. Injuries have decimated this club and with it, their chances at the division. So, we sought to quantify this question and see just how often the new lineup would win the AL East. We’ll spare you the nitty-gritty details, but the essentials are this: based on the expected run production of the new lineup, we simulated 10,000 “seasons,” the end result being an AL East championship probability. Further, we plugged in some of the club’s rumored trade targets and internal options to measure their effect on the team. Playing time estimates are rough estimates and are subject to change. Production estimates are based on Fangraphs.com’s CHONE projections. Below are the results.

The Replacement Brigade: Eric Patterson, Angel Sanchez, et al

It’s been another harrowing week for the Red Sox as yet another key starter has gone down to injury. With Dustin Pedroia sustaining a broken foot, the second baseman is expected to miss an estimated six weeks – forcing the Sox to scramble for a replacement due to their lack of infield depth. Elaborating on Pedroia’s importance would be superfluous. The former AL MVP is among the three most indispensible Red Sox on the active roster next to Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester – if not the most important of the three. Considering the absence of any semblance of a Major Leaguer middle infielder in Boston’s stead, he is as good as irreplaceable. Still, the length of Pedroia’s injury is nearly as confounding as the injury itself. Assuming he returns along the proposed six-week time line, the Sox are in a purgatory of sorts when it comes to finding a replacement. On the one hand, they could trade for a replacement outside the organization - costing the team prospects in exchange for gaining about a win or two in Pedroia’s absence. On the other, they could tough it out with the inadequate options available.

Trying to value pitch calling

On May fourth I asked the question, Should Jason Varitek be the Starting Catcher? Not much has changed as at the time I noted "In 146 IP thrown to Martinez the staff has a K/BB of 1.64, but when Varitek has caught in 83.6 innings the staff has thrown a 2.35 K/BB." That trend has largely continued as Varitek has saw more time, so how much is the difference worth? Some things to keep in mind is that this is a skill we really can't value before the catchers catch the same pitchers. We knew Victor Martinez was not the best catcher, but how could anyone know for sure his pitch calling would raise these questions. So this is more of an exercise done in retrospect and would help decide how to approach Martinez this offseason.

The intangible benefit of Pedroia

The Sox lineup, as always, is a meat grinder. They have four players in the top 20 in the American League in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA) and Pedroia ranks seventh at 4.27 (behind Youkilis who is fourth at 4.36) through 217 plate appearances (Victor Martinez is 11th at 4.12, J.D. Drew 13th at 4.11 while Marco Scutaro is 33rd at 3.92). Pedroia is also second in the league in total plate appearances at 217, behind only Denard Span of the Twins at 218, and leads the league in total pitches seen. Factoring in the entire majors, Youkilis ranks ninth and Pedroia 19th in P/PA.

Sitting in the No. 2 hole in the Sox lineup, Pedroia pesky plate appearances have a ripple down effect. Take for instance last Thursday when Boston beat Minnesota 6-2 on the strength of Jon Lester's nine-strikeout complete game. Pedroia was 0-3 with a walk and a run against the Twins and Francisco Liriano and was instrumental in knocking Minnesota's wily lefty out of the game after 4.2 innings with five earned runs on five hits and three walks. Pedroia was in the midst of a 4 for 39 slump at the time that spanned from May 12 to 23 before putting up three hits against the Rays on Monday.

It is time to plan for next year

We are starting to move beyond the "it is early" excuse for the Red Sox record. The club has issues and it may be too late to resolve them. Even the most optimist projection of the Olde Towne Team's chance of making the postseason is only at twenty percent. The Red Sox should be planning to sell off pieces this summer.

Nick Cafardo said in a recent piece for the Boston Globe.

Being the GM in Boston means:...2. Don’t ever think of retooling. You can’t give up the season and make the necessary deals with veteran players to replenish your farm system. Uh-uh, don’t dare do that in Boston;...

Yawkey Way will need to forget the public pressure to play for today. If this is truly not your "Father's Red Sox", then we may see the best example of it this July.

If the Red Sox standings demonstrate an unrealistic mountain to climb after the All-Star Break, a large segment of fans may not revolt to the white flag waving.

Choose Your Own Adventure

With the Red Sox treading water just above .500 after a month and a half of the season, its too early to fully embrace the "wait 'till next year" mentality. At the same time however, you had better believe Theo Epstein and his advisors have played their own game of "choose your own adventure" that has them following the "to become sellers and restock for 2011 turn to page 41" path.

Drew Back on Track, A Thing or Two About Numbers, What is Fixable?

Drew Back on Track No Sox hitter in the past two weeks has been hotter than J.D. Drew. In Boston’s last ten games, he’s batted 17-for-36 with three homers. The eight Ks are a bit unfortunate, but nothing concerning. Not including last night, his first strike percentage is down to 63.4 from 72.7, his BABIP is up to .329 from .194. What is particularly exciting about Drew’s performance is the type of contact he’s making. Besides it being hard and consistent, he’s been doing an excellent job of sending the ball the other way on two strikes. According to MLB.com’s Fenway Park hit chart, Drew has four opposite field singles this season to go along with two doubles. In 2009, he had all of five singles (seven depending on how narrowly or widely you define the left field) and five doubles (up to nine for the width of left field). In particular, Drew has been serving these opposite field singles with two strikes. Keeping his hands back and serving outside pitches into right field means he’s timing the ball much better than he had been. Lots of hitters in slumps will get ahead of the pitch and roll the ball over to the pull side...