The Future Holds many Questions for the Red Sox Catching — And Hopefully an Answer

Fact: As a catcher, Victor Martinez makes a good first baseman – and a D.H.

Fact: Jason Varitek, at 38, is on the down side of a once brilliant career. Fact: Both players’ contracts expire after the 2010 season. Question: Who will comprise the next generation of Red Sox catchers? Will it be either Pawtucket catcher Mark Wagner or Dusty Brown, each of whom is on Boston’s 40-man roster? Or will it be one – or both – of Boston’s very best catcher prospects, Luis Exposito or Tim Federowicz?

The Case For Optimism

Monday night, we got a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Clay Buchholz put together another solid outing, further cementing himself as this season’s most reliable starter, and the offense put on a show — especially during a long 6th inning that saw seven Sox runners cross the plate. The question is this: was what we saw last night something we can expect to see again, or was it simply a reminder of how frustrating this season has become?

I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.

Should Jason Varitek continue to catch

Heading into 2010 it was a fairly easy choice that we wanted Victor Martinez to supply the offense we needed from the catcher position and give adequate defense behind the plate. So far though there has been some early results that might be good reasoning to place Martinez in the DH spot more often and give Varitek a final year of significant work in a Red Sox uniform. While Martinez offense has not been there yet this season his number look fine. He is striking out only 7 percent of the time, which is lower than any season in his career. His walk rate is a bit low at 8.5 percent, but nothing significant from his career rate of 10 percent. His power has not been around yet, but neither has his luck with a BABIP of .241. Once that regresses to the mean his average will return and his OBP. There is good reason to use him over Ortiz at the DH, but is there a reason why we should use Varitek over Martinez at catcher? I was wondering the same thing and no it's not a question of offense. He may look impressive right now, but a .500 ISO will make anyone look impressive. The power is exceptional, but once it regresses his other numbers will return to what they have been or a .230/.330/.440 line or a .340 wOBA. That is about league average and although probably better than Ortiz right now not a reason to change.

Bigger problems than stolen bases

Giving up a stolen base can sure seem like a big deal and when you give up nine of them you would think that is a huge number. It isn't something you want to give up every night, but it's not as big of a problem as our pitching staff's inability to not give up the free pass. A stolen base has an average value of about 0.18 runs. That means every time a runner takes a base he increases his teams chances to score by that amount. That isn't much and when you take into account the potential to lose 0.43 value if you are caught it's a pretty dangerous wager. In the case of the Rangers off of Tim Wakefield though on Tuesday night there wasn't much danger of being caught and only value to gain. It was an easy choice for them and gave them approximately 1.62 runs in value. That is no amount to ignore and is worth slightly more than the average home run, which is worth about 1.4.

Extending Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez has publicly stated he would like to extend his contract with the Boston Red Sox and perhaps even finish his career here. I don't doubt he would like to stay here, but the question we have to ask is how much will it cost to get it done. He would like to have something before the season starts. The first question is the length of a new deal. This will be his age 31 season and he would surely be looking for a four to five year deal. With his ability to get on base and solid power I don't see a problem with that length of deal, but we should immediately think how long can he last behind the plate.

Contingency Planning for an Ortiz on the Ropes

As Buster Olney stated in a recent piece, “the Red Sox may look to replace David Ortiz if he struggles again in the first half like he did last year.” Certainly, the struggles of Big Papi have a lot to say about the success of the team. Like we profiled earlier, David Ortiz is undeniably on the downswing of his career. In what should be the last year of his contract, Ortiz will likely have difficulty living up to his $12.5 million price tag. The plan outlined by Olney involves a specific scenario under which Ortiz repeats his 2009 first-half struggles, leading to a trade of Ortiz, acquiring a catcher and moving Victor Martinez to DH. Quite the series of moves. The first obstacle to any such move involves Ortiz underperforming to such a degree that he repeats his putrid April and May, in which he hit just one home run in 178 at-bats on his way to a .185/.289/.286 overall line...

New Poll: Which catcher would you least like to see go on free agency?

New Poll Question: Which Red Sox catcher would you least like to see go on free agency? * George Kottaras…

Sox’ Expiring Contracts

As is customary at the conclusion of every MLB season, the Boston Red Sox are now the proud holders of a number of expiring contracts and team options. For a team swept in the opening round of the playoffs, there is often the urge to spend big on the free agent market in an attempt to show the fans that they are committed to winning after a badly failed run. However, this may not be the case with the 2010 Sox, as they are retaining most of their starting roster - many at excellent prices for their skill level (i.e. Lester for $3.75 million in 2010) - with significant questions at left field and shortstop only. Now, with the end of the season upon us and free agency approaching, who will the Sox choose to keep around?

BOS 11, CLE 6: Bats Boost Beckett Past Indians

The Boston bats had Beckett's back last night, in a big way. Alliteration aside, the Red Sox starter struggled through five innings, but came up with the win, his seventeenth of the season, as the Sox took a third game from the Cleveland Indians. With only one game left in the regular season, the quiet Red Sox backs woke up, as Aaron Laffey and the rest of the Tribe's pen were lit up, on the way to an 11-6 loss.

POLL: No. 3 starter?

New Poll Question: Who should be considered the No. 3 starter?

• Clay Buchholz
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Tim Wakefield
• My grandmother
  

In the wake of Clay Buchholz's poor start in Toronto, it's a legitimate question. We determined Dice-K should be the No. 4 starter in a previous poll, but should he jump up a notch?

As always, new poll is up to the right...vote away and argue it out in the comments.