The Red Sox have won nine games in a row and have scored 83 runs in those nine games. Despite the offensive barrage that the Sox have unleashed lately, J.D. Drew, as he has for most of the year, has missed the party. In the last nine games, Drew has hit .176 and drawn only one walk.
Drew’s struggles this season may have come to an apex on Sunday, when he went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. For a wile now, he has been rubbing a large amount of Red Sox Nation the wrong way. At least in the past we could blame it on his calm demeanor — which looked like a lack of passion — or the way he didn’t go diving into walls or sliding head-first into every base. For almost a full season and a half now, Drew’s performance has been the real issue.
To date, Drew’s slash line stands at .227/.330/.337. The AVG is obviously tough to look at, but I will point out that his .330 OBP is actually a little better than league average — though a league-average performance from Drew wouldn’t be good enough for Sox fans. Drew struggled to hit for AVG last season as well (.255), but at least he did a good job of getting on base (.341 OBP) and hitting for power (22 HR, .452 SLG, .192 ISO). So far this season, Drew hasn’t hit for much power at all. He has four home runs and a SLG two points below that of Aaron Miles.
The problems with Drew’s offensive game started last season. Many Sox fans saw that Drew was chasing too many bad pitches, something he rarely did in the past. Numbers backed up these assumptions, as Drew held a 20.6 percent chase rate, his highest chase rate in six years. While a 20-percent chase rate is much better than the league average, it did mark a significant change in Drew’s skill-set. Why was Drew chasing so many more pitches outside the strike-zone? Could it be because his bat speed was slowing, causing him to have to guess or start his swing earlier? There are numbers that could support such a theory. Drew had always been a good fastball hitter, but his runs above average on fastballs fell from 23.7 in 2009 to 3.7 in 2010. His runs above average on fastballs have not even been above average this season (-0.6).
So far this season, Drew’s chase rate has risen to 26.7 percent, which is almost ten-percent above his career average. Opposing pitchers continue to exploit this trend as well, throwing fewer and fewer pitches inside the strike-zone. His percentage of pitches seen inside the strike-zone has fallen from 48.4 percent in 2009 to 46.6 percent in 2010 and down to 43.4 percent so far this season.
At the age of 35, Drew’s skills seem to certainly be in decline. One of his best assets, plate discipline, has been sliding since last season. While he’s still taking a good amount of walks (12.6 percent walk rate), he’s chasing more pitches outside the strike-zone and striking out more often (37 percent of the time in June). When Drew has made contact, it hasn’t been consistently good contact (16.3 percent line-drive rate and the aforementioned Aaron Miles-esque SLG). His struggles against left-handed pitching have been well documented and he has looked horrible against them through 35 plate appearances this season (2/12 BB/K).
If Drew is going to get on board with this team’s offensive tear, he’s going to have to make some drastic adjustments. But can he? If his last 737 plate appearances are any indication, then it doesn’t look good. However, if he continues to be relegated to starting only against right-handed pitching, then perhaps he can find a groove and maximize his on base skills — Drew has a .346 OBP against right-handed pitching.
Drew may indeed be on a decline skill-wise, but it’s not time to write him off just yet. He should still get on base enough against right-handed pitching and he has seen a rise in HR/FB rate each month of the season so far, so the power numbers should improve.
The problem is finding Drew’s right-handed platoon partner. Mike Cameron is hitting .156/.221/.299 and seems to be swinging like the 38-year-old that he is, so if not him, then who? If the Sox can answer that question, it would go a long way to helping The Nation get over their frustrations with Drew. It would also go a long way to helping the Sox extend their season into late October.