Some quick and dirty reactions to the PECOTA predictions of Red Sox players:
- For those who wanted Sean Casey over Chris Carter, Carter is projected to hit .259/.325/.394 with a -9 FRAA, while Casey is at .275/.330/.380, with a -2 FRAA.
- As Daniel Rathman revealed in the comments, Coco Crisp could be more valuable than Jacoby Ellsbury this year: 287/.346/.395, 2 FRAA for Jacoby and for Crisp: .278/.338/.407, 10 FRAA
- J.D. Drew is expected to have a similar season to his 2007, except… worse. Boo.
- Mike Lowell: Not bad! .285/.345/.437 with 14 HR, 79 RBI, FRAA of 8 and comparisons to Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken, Jr. Wow.
- .259/.335/.407 is what Jed Lowrie would hit with a painful -4 FRAA, while Lugo hits us at .275/.337/.384 and a FRAA of -2.
- Varitek is encouraging at .255/.352/.420, Youk at .272/.373/.448, Papi at .282/.402/.541 (35 HR).
- A small (but not major) sophomore slump for Dustin Pedroia is also in the cards as is a decidedly unrosy look at Manny with only 21 HR!
- New bullpen pickup David Aardsma would have a 4.22 ERA in 48 innings for us, and Hideki Okajima Manny Delcarmen would be our best reliever. Timlin, Snyder, Lopez… all would hover around the mid-4s in ERA, so this may be a source of worry. Papelbon is slated for a 2.55 ERA, 39 saves and 67.1 IP.
- Deep rotation with Beckett at 3.98 ERA (205 innings), Dice-K at 3.90, Lester at 4.93, Buchholz at 4.08, Schilling at 4.18, Wakefield at 4.98.