Throw the Curve, Josh!

Posting for Zach…
Josh Beckett??s name is circling the news today in Boston. Josh is coming off one of his best performances of the year against Kansas City- 8 innings of 5-hit baseball with no earned runs in a 1-0 victory- and recently signed a contract extension to remain with the Red Sox until 2010. We should be looking at Beckett and Lester in the rotation and Delcarmen/Hansen/Papelbon in the bullpen for years to come, which is very exciting for the future of the Red Sox. Beckett was pretty solid today, but as we all know, the kid has struggled in his first year in the American League. His ERA (4.78) is the highest of his career. Some other telling stats can be pointed out to show Beckett??s issues- his 1.09 G/F ratio is lower than ever, teams are slugging .491 against Beckett, by far the highest of his career, and he??s striking out only 7.50 batters per nine innings, compared to 9.63 in 2003 and 8.36 last season.
I have a solution where Beckett can be more effective, but it will involve a ton of work on Josh??s second-best pitch, the curveball. He needs to work with Tek and Mirabelli to perfect that pitch, because when the curveball is working properly,

Josh Beckett can be one of the best pitchers in baseball. When he has to rely on the fastball, he gets beaten. Mostly he is beaten on the fastball later in the game, when the opposing lineup is in their second time through and have already seen his 96 MPH heater. Check out the chart to the left…
The numbers show hitters slug much better against Josh during pitches 31-45, 46-60 and 76-90 (and pitches 106-120, but that??s quite common). The first time through the order, opponents can??t touch Beckett, when he is blowing the fastball by the hitters. For instance, today, Beckett threw all fastballs the first time through the Kansas City order besides four pitches. That works. The problem is the fastball + second/third time through the order + overuse = high slugging percentage.
Beckett is still very young with time to mature and an opportunity to perfect that curveball. His changeup and sinker, pitches he rarely throws, are actually quite

good. He is pretty balanced pitching against RHB (.491) and LHB (.471), so that??s not much of an issue. The curveball is the key to his success, because it??s obvious when he throws that pitch more frequently, he??s at the top of his game. Take a look at this chart on the right.
Beckett throws the curveball 16% of the time, and opponents are hitting a mere .127 against that pitch! The problem with Josh is his reliance on the fastball the second time through the order. If he can throw that first pitch curveball the second time through more often than 11%, hitters will not only see the curve, but realize they have to look for that pitch. When Beckett is ahead of the count, he throws the curveball 26% of the time. Too low. Work with Varitek and Nipper and get that pitch for a strike more often, and hike up the 26% number to more like 35 or 40%. Hitters are getting too many 0-2 and 1-2 fastballs for my liking. Mix in a changeup if you really have to.
I??m excited to have Beckett in a Red Sox uniform for years to come, but the kid has a lot of work to do, obviously, before becoming a Cy Young candidate. I feel the main component to his success is working with a consistent and effective curveball, and throwing that pitch more often later in the game. It??s always nice to have that 96 MPH fastball in your arsenal, but a dominant second pitch will catapult Beckett into another level. Great pitchers can rely on the curveball when they??re ahead in the count more often than Josh has been doing this season. Give the kid time and he should be something special.