The other day, I was talking about (what else?) the Red Sox with a friend, and I mentioned that I didn’t think Alex Gonzalez would be returning to the Red Sox next year, and I thought he may even lose his job later this year. I mentioned the word Dustin Pedroia for next year, but this year would be via a trade. When asked who the Red Sox could acquire in a trade, I mentioned Cesar Izturis.
Now, I’m a little afraid because I think Peter Gammons has learned the art of invisibility. Apparently he was there when I said that because the very next day, in his ESPN Insider notebook was this gem:
Cesar Izturis is approximately two weeks from returning to the Dodgers, a miraculous recovery from Tommy John surgery. With Rafael Furcal and Jeff Kent in place in the middle of the diamond, the club has asked him to break back in as a super-utility player, which includes playing the outfield. Izturis has told friends he has no intention of risking reinjuring the elbow by trying to make a different throw from the outfield and eventually wants to be traded. Because he has a $5.5M option for next year, this is a distinct possibility. Izturis believes he will eventually end up in Boston with good friend Alex Cora.
So everything’s fine, right? Gammons and I believe Izturis is headed to Boston, and that’s not a bad thing.
But then I thought about it.
Here are Gonzalez’s last three years (this includes 2006 as a fourth year) and then Izturis’ last three years (including 2003.)
Gonzalez:
| Years | AB | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2003 | 528 | 52 | 33 | 6 | 18 | 77 | 106 | 0 | 4 | .256 | .313 | .443 | .756 | |
| 2004 | 561 | 67 | 30 | 3 | 23 | 79 | 126 | 3 | 1 | .232 | .270 | .419 | .689 | |
| 2005 | 435 | 45 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 81 | 5 | 3 | .264 | .319 | .368 | .686 | |
| 2006 | 44 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .205 | .255 | .273 | .528 |
Izturis:
| Years | AB | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2003 | 558 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 40 | 70 | 10 | 5 | .251 | .282 | .315 | .597 | |
| 2004 | 670 | 90 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 62 | 70 | 25 | 9 | .288 | .330 | .381 | .710 | |
| 2005 | 444 | 48 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 51 | 8 | 8 | .257 | .302 | .322 | .624 |
Izturis’ career line: .261/.295/.338
Gonzalez’s career line: .244/.291/.390
Alex Gonzalez is better than Cesar Izturis.
So who could replace Alex Gonzalez next year at SS if it’s not Dustin Pedroia? Or rather, who can the Red Sox acquire to be a significant offensive upgrade to allow for the downgrade in defense (whether it’s a downgrade to good or average, it’s a downgrade because we’re talking Alex Gonzalez.)
First, how has Gonzalez done defensively this year?
He has a .984 fielding percentage, having made one error. He’s tied for fifth in all of the MLB in double plays, turning 11. His 36 assists are good for 16th (Yuniesky Betancourt of the Mariners leads at 45), and he has 24 putouts which ranks him at fourth, seven behind Angel Berroa of the Royals (who has committed four errors on the season thus far.)
And now the big numbers. Gonzalez’s 5.00 Range Factor is good for third in the major leagues, bettered only by Juan Castro of the Twins and J.J. Hardy of the Brewers, both of whom check in at 5.64. Last year, his RF was 4.87, good for fifth in the majors, behind Rafael Furcal (5.23), David Eckstein (5.11), Jack Wilson (5.09), and Julio Lugo (4.94).
His Zone Rating is is way down at 12, meaning he’s the 12th best defensive shortstop so far in fielding balls in his defensive ‘zone’ which … is surprising. Checking in at .857, he trails Houston’s Adam Everett at .935. In 2005, Jack Wilson led at .884 with Alex Gonzalez 11th at .846.
This means what, exactly? It means that Gonzalez gets plenty of balls hit to him that he converts to either putouts or assists. (RF is putouts and assists divided by innings – I guess you could call it the fielder’s ERA, except that it’s the higher the better this time around.) Basically, if he can get to the ball, he’s going to have an excellent chance of making a play. However, he’s not the best at range (we’re talking zone rating now, not range factor, which is why I think these statistics need some name tweaking), and I don’t think we’ll ever quite see someone like Pokey Reese again, but Gonzalez has good range (again, zone rating) in the field, but what he truly excels at is turning the balls he gets to in his range for outs.
Meandering through the lists of starting shortstops for all 30 teams in the majors, I can safely say that the shortstops fall into two categories:
1) The team this shortstop is on would be insane to trade this shortstop and/or this shortstop would command one hell of a bounty.
2) This shortstop does not interest the Red Sox at all.
The only starting shortstop that didn’t make the cut on this list was Julio Lugo, and that dosen’t include Cesar Izturis, as we’ve already eliminated him from possibily replacing Gonzalez (at least I have, you may have not). Lugo doesn’t quite exactly fall into Rule Number One, but he does in the Rays eyes, because they were accepting nothing less than Andy Marte for him in the offseason. And thus, it sounds like we’re “stuck” with Gonzalez this year.
His hitting may not be pretty, but his defense sure is. If we can’t have one, at least we can have the other.
All statistics are as of Wednesday. Don’t shoot me if they’re percentage points off!
