Something we aren’t used to seeing in Boston is JD Drew not getting on base over 35 percent of the time. So far in 2010 he has only walked 12 percent of the time and struck out 42 percent of the time. For a career rate around 22 percent that is a huge jump.
Strike out rate is something that takes about 200+ AB to become statistically significant so it’s to early to say he has lost his swing, but perhaps we can see what is troubling him so far in 2010.
One thing I noticed is in his swing charts he has gone after many more down and inside pitches than he did all of last year. Here is his swing chart from 2009 and notice how most of the pitches are very tight in the zone.
JD DRew 2009 Swing Chart
Most of his swings out of the zone are low, but over a full season there isn’t to many and his percentage of swings out of the zone was 15.3 percent. That has changed in 2010 to 23.4 percent in 2010 although he is still making a similar amount of contact at 59 percent. Looking at his 2010 graph you can see a slightly larger clustering of pitches at his feet than 2009 after only 2+ weeks.
JD Drew 2010 Swing Chart
I’m sure this is something that is just a factor of the sample size and Drew has such a great eye he’ll return to the on base machine we all know. So far he has seen the lowest number of pitches in the zone since 2003 and perhaps he has grown a bit impatient. I can’t say for sure as his swing rate is similar to career levels. It just seems he has swung at a few extra bad pitches, but I think we can expect his number to begin to climb quickly.
Graphs thanks to TexasLeaguers.com