The Boston Red Sox and What It Means to Spend Wisely

There is a difference between the Red Sox and nearly every other team in baseball - and it’s pretty obvious. How lucky are our home town fans, that our very own Boston squad has significantly more money to spend on players most other teams. Actually, all but one - but who's counting. Too bad they’re in our division. But that’s alright, so long as we use our resources wisely. So, what is using our resources wisely? From the Red Sox’ perspective, it’s much different from most teams. Over the past five seasons, the team’s highest budget was $143 million, registered in 2007. We’ll save spectulating on this year’s budget, which will be quite high, as there could still be some maneuvering left to go, and the value of free agents and draft picks in this economy is yet to be determined. Therefore, we’ll treat 2007 as the team’s theoretical budget through which to speculate on how the team can formulate its spending practices. Citing the research of analyst Keith Woolner, a theoretical replacement level team would win approximately 44 games. Putting this in perspective, this standard of futility is comparable to the some worst teams of all time, including the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates (42-112). After seeing this, two thoughts come to mind. One, wow, how far have the Mets come since that disturbingly dreadful inaugural season 47 years ago. The other, what in the hell happened to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who found a way to produce a 20-134 record (.130 win percentage) and be doomed to the annals of worst team in MLB history. Ouch. According to the all-knowing Wikipedia, only 3,179 fans attended the team's first 16 home games...

Evaluating the 2010 team so far

After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it's possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn't very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I'm going to look at the roster without any third baseman. *Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it's an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them. Better than 2009 Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.

John Lackey joins Boston in curious move

By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services. Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don't attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names. The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein's first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract -- so really, only two free agent years were bought out. That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can't really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn't seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he's been very good on the pitching ledger, so he's stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.

Pressing reasons to improve the infield defense

There has been a lot of stress placed on the defense this offseason and that looks to continue with the interest in Adrian Beltre to replace Mike Lowell at third base. Other than the obvious value gained from a solid defense is there another reason to make sure you obtain positive gains this year in defense? I think I found it and it starts with Clay Buchholz. With Buchholz taking on the number three spot in the rotation there was an interesting number that seemed in common for our top three. That number is groundball percentage, which Buchholz led the team in during his limited appearances at 53.8%. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have established new career levels above 47% meaning 3 out of 5 starts by the team should have a large amount of work for the infield.

The Science of Selling Felix, A-Gon Short

In our versions of an offseason blueprint the Red Sox could follow (1, 2, 3) one topic that came up fairly often was how realistic or unrealistic our proposed trade packages were for certain players. Let's recap: Mike Lowell, Casey Kotchman, Clay Buchholz and key minor league pieces (defined as anyone sans Kelly, numbering two) for Felix Hernandez. Money comment: Getting King Felix would be nice, but you are crazy thinking Seattle would have any interest in picking up Lowell or Kotchman. Why would they pick up $16+ in salaries? Lowell is going nowhere unless we pay his salary, which is crazy. - MEe Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen, Michael Bowden, two "second-tier" prospects to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. Money comment: Delcarmen is a stiff. Bowden is a stiff. Anderson has done NOTHING in the minor leagues. Clay Buccholz has major league stuff but has yet to prove himself for an entire season. For this you'll get one of the best young power hitters in the game? I think not!! - Nick If our proposed deals are not up to snuff, that's not good. Let's try to figure out what a proposed deal could, should be.

LAA 7, BOS 6: The End Is Here

That one stings. Jon Papelbon's ninth inning meltdown ended the playoff journey for Boston, as the Red Sox are swept by the Los Angeles Angels, 7-6. After leading for the entire game, Vlad Guerrero's single off Papelbon in the top of the ninth was the culmination of a completely lackluster post-season, the end of a pretty abysmal weekend for Boston sports in general. But... there's always next year.

10/11: This feels familiar

Do Sox stand a fightin’ chance to emerge victorious?

The Red Sox are in such dire straits offensively, I'm pining for the offensive slump the team was in that precipitated the Victor Martinez trade. Across two games, Boston's come up with just eight measly hits, only two of them extra-base hits (and not of the four-bagger variety). Putting aside for the moment whether Terry Francona messed up on such decisions as leaving Josh Beckett in too long, where do the Sox go from here?

So, who’s winning this Sox/Angels battle?

The Red Sox are set to do battle with the Angels later this week to decide who gets to play for the American League pennant. Boston and Los Angeles are certainly familiar with each other, having done battle in the 2004, '07 and '08 DCS. In fact, Boston went 9-1 in those games and the Angels' futility extends all the way bac to 1986 and Donnie Moore. Do the Angels have a chance to put their Boston voodoo behind them or will the Sawx manhandle L.A. all the way towards what seems to be an inevitable date with the Evil Empire? Read on to see pitching breakdowns, a look at the offense and defense, musings on hometown advantages, and the official prediction.

BOS 12, CLE 7: The Long and Winding Win

It may not have been the way that Clay Buchholz wanted to head into the post season, but a win is a win in professional sports, as the Red Sox took their 95th win of the season off of the Cleveland Indians, 12-7, on Sunday. Buchholz only lasted three innings, but the run support was there in droves, as J.D. Drew clocked two, Jed Lowrie belted a grand slam, and Alex Gonzalez made sure that everyone knew he was doing just fine with another home run, just to name a few.