4/22 Online Seats Game Thread: Sox Send Rangers Reeling

After two straight walk off wins, the Boston Red Sox will try to complete the sweep of the Texas Rangers in the final game of the series.

So Goes the Pitching…

So Goes the Pitching Staff In the midst of a four-game losing streak that has dropped the team to 4-8, Sox fans have begun the multi-annual ritual of name calling and finger pointing as to where blame lies on the club’s current skid. While the hitting has been poor by the normal standards, perhaps the most alarming development of the season has been the utter failure of the starting pitching staff. Of particular note is how easy the hurlers have been to hit and how often they have been falling behind early in the count. Jon Lester (5.40 BB/9, 1.5 K:BB ratio), John Lackey (4.26 BB/9, 0.83 K:BB), Jon Papelbon (8.44 BB/9, 0.40 K:BB), and Clay Buchholz (5.40 BB/9, 1.33 K:BB) have been the poster children for this trend -- seeing a precipitous deterioration in their first strike rates, zone percentages, and their contact rates.

4/17 Online Seats Game Thread: Rain Shortens Hit Parade

The Boston Red Sox will finish what they started last night against the Rays, while a new game begins at 7:10, pitting Clay Buchholz against James Shields in game two of the series.

Sox Take R&R in KC, Buchholz Picks Up Where He Left Off

R&R in KC After winning the home opener, the Sox looked quite sluggish in their encore performances against the Yanks. What they needed was a little R&R against a weak out-of-division opponent -- and the KC Royals came to the rescue. Though the pitching staff managed to make the series interesting -- including dropping the first content by virtue of Okajima’s and Bard’s eighth inning bullpen lapses -- there were many positives to take away from the road trip to Missouri...

4/10 Online Seats Game Thread: Buchholz makes debut

Clay Buchholz makes his season debut for the Boston Red Sox. He's got a good first opponent in the hapless Royals, but can the inconsistent youngster put it all together? With Daisuke Matsuzaka around the corner, can Buchholz afford a misstep?

Small samples and spring flings

Every spring, we get the March stars who try to earn a roster spot, but hopefully we all know by now that a month or so of at bats is not enough to tell anything.

Half the time, players are facing minor leaguers and the rest are players working on their approach. Any major league team who picks a player based on any statistic over another in March is only setting themselves up to be disappointed.

So far this spring, Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .400/.429/.700 line in 40 ABs. That sure looks nice and Jeremy Hermedia is matching him with .400/.447/.571 -- but does anyone think either is a better option in right field than J.D. Drew who is currently hitting .154/.241/.231?

You might say that comparing them to an established player making $14 million this year is a silly comparison, but why would that be any different than saying Clay Buchholz is not ready to start this year based on 6.2 IP?

AL East Sleepers: Boston Red Sox

As the hometown team boasts one of the strongest starting nine in the American League, it can be difficult to detect sleepers among the pack. Don’t be fooled, however. They are there and prepped to support an elite cast looking to avenge last season’s early playoff exit. Though few of the positional starters offer much potential as true "sleepers", considering the number of All-Stars and MVP candidates among them, the pitching staff contributes much of the excitement on this front. With youngsters and rebound contenders among the lot, an already superb rotation and bullpen could receive a few significant boosts from numerous sources. SP Clay Buchholz After the light came on last season, it never seemed to go out. Finally hitting his stride at the Major League level, he was able to lay fears about his potential to rest. Though not a groundbreaking season by any means, Buchholz’ performance went a long way toward stabilizing the ailing rotation during August and September. Looking forward to 2010, Buchholz should comfortably take the place of the 5th starter – possibly 4th, depending upon the performance of Daisuke Matsuzaka – expectations he should have no problem fulfilling...

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it's a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010? 10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate - While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

Is Clay Buchholz’s change-up responsible for lefty struggles?

Clay Buchholz is poised to take another step forward this year as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. He spent much of the first half of 2009 dominating Triple-A competition, and finally got his shot when Tim Wakefield experienced injury problems most of the second half. His "emergence" wasn't much of a surprise despite his godawful 6.75 ERA in 15 starts and one relief appearance during 2008, as his Fielding Independent Pitching was 4.69 and xFIP (FIP with home runs normalized to park and league data) 4.28 over 76 innings. Those respective FIPs were 4.69 and 4.09, respectively, covering 92 innings in 2009 with a 4.21 ERA all told. An aspect to Buchholz's game I don't think has been made enough of, however, is his inability to pitch against left-handers. Okay, inability is a bit strong, so let's go clear deficiency compared to right-handed batters.

PECOTA confirms our thoughts on 2010 and Clay Buchholz

This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place. Of course the big surprise is who is in first. PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card. So where are the Yankees? Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs. OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along. The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.