LAA 5, BOS 4: Tempers flare, Angels take series

Bobby Abreu got all the revenge he needed.

Know Thyself 2009: Boston Red Sox

The 2009 Boston Red Sox are in the final stages of preparing for what is certain to be an entertaining and exciting season. The spring is finally behind us, the roster is set and the team is moving northward to christen Citi Field with some Major League talent.

Now all the roster moves are behind us and the questions move from the "who" of the offseason as they shift to the analysis of performance and the "what" of baseball. This past week has been spent looking at the competition in the American League East, and stiff competition it is. In most cases, the Red Sox had the position by position edge over each team from the Yankees to the Orioles and it should come as no surprise, in that light, that the staff here at Fire Brand gives the Red Sox the edge to win the AL East in 2009.

Today we summarize much of what we've talked about in our "For Better or Worse" series this offseason as we go player by player through the Red Sox roster and prepare for live baseball next week.

Know Thine Enemy 2009: New York Yankees

The other half of the best rivalry in sports, The New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers "only" ended up with 89 victories last season. And the key players they inked this past off-season, have them looking incredibly strong on paper for this upcoming 2009 season.

The philosophy about building a strong farm was basically put on hold for a year. But Brian Cashman made some nice maneuvers, and the result--whether it was intentional or not--allowed the Yankees to lose their first three picks this year. And that is better than losing a first-round pick in three consecutive seasons, of course.

How will fans respond if Ortiz fails early on in 2009?

If Ortiz is terrible, I may worry a little, but I will ultimately think logically about the situation and rely on; the previous great years, the fact that Ortiz is 33, not 36. And of course, I will remember that just last season Jose Guillen was a truly great player for a single month, and that Ryan Howard was truly atrocious. A month is a rather short period of time in baseball life.

Chat Transcript: Ortiz, Yankees, Buchholz and more

David Ortiz - Samara Pearlstein

Sit down with a big cup of coffee, because have I a treat for you. I participated in a chat on Tuesday night and they have made the transcript available for Fire Brand to peruse.

I talk about which minor leaguers to keep an eye on... what the Sox need to do to win this year... how important David Ortiz is to us.

Oh, I also throw out predictions such as who will finish at first... scoff at the Yankees... and talk about who the heck can be our future catcher.

Which TV characters resemble Red Sox players?

I was thinking about the multitude of TV shows that I watch and I thought it would be pretty funny and cool to pair up who I think represents a certain character best on the Red Sox. I'm not limiting this to one show (but am limiting it to shows currently on the air), so... let's check out my comparisons. In the comments, leave your own!

My favorite Red Sox players

Pedro - drgandy

On Friday, the Boston Globe ran down the worst breakups in Red Sox history going around the diamond by position. It's a nice (and sobering) read.

It made me ask myself "who would be on my personal 'favorite Red Sox' team?" My list is here and includes famous names such as Pedro Martinez and obscure names such as Jeff Frye

The battle between what we see visually and numerically

JD Drew is a lifetime .284 hitter. If Drew only "drew" 30 walks a season then his offensive contributions would diminish greatly. What he "lacks" in batting average, Drew more than makes up for in reaching base via the walk...and of course he hits for power too.

But JD Drew has been an on base machine over his career. People's beliefs on how walks impact the game of baseball may vary. But can anyone argue that a .392 career on base percentage, isn't really, really good? That is how often Drew has reached base in his career.

JUNKYARD DOGS, A Season of Redemption . . . and Hope.

17 of the starting 25 Red Sox for 2009 have much to prove this season. Of this number, 15 are rebounding from injuries which plagued 2008.

Using xBABIP and IF/F to predict some Sox’s 2009 numbers

A month ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix collaborated together to come up with a new statistic -- xBABIP. For batters, a .300 BABIP is not a reliable benchline (as it is for pitchers), nor is there one standard benchline across all batters. They have to be personalized, which Dutton and Bendix did.

David Ortiz looks to be in line for a monster regression to the mean... except in this case, regression is a good thing. You can expect a .300 average as a reasonable forecast next year for Big Papi.

Check out the numbers behind the reasoning for Big Papi, plus some interesting numbers on Jason Bay, Julio Lugo and others...