Can Jacoby Ellsbury add power to his game?

At NESN, I wrote an article theorizing if Jacoby Ellsbury could add power to his game.

I drew quick and dirty comparisons to Johnny Damon and Carl Crawford, arguing that Ellsbury can expect to see an uptick in power production in the future. I wanted to expound on this here.

Baseball is a game of evolution. The game that’s being played on the field now, while under similar rules hearkening all the way back to the inception of the game, is drastically different.

I think the evolution of Johnny Damon puts things in proper perspective for Ellsbury. (Click ‘Read More’ or the headline to read the remainder of the article and leave a comment.)

Josh Beckett contract models

It’s rumored that the Red Sox and Josh Beckett are in strong discussions on a new contract according to Gordon Edes at ESPN Boston. The target is the end of spring training to finalize something or weight until the offseason. I have made my opinion on Beckett’s contract known at Yawkey Way Academy and came to a value of 4/$64, but this was before we saw the changes to the 2010 market and the addition of John Lackey.

It’s tough to say what Beckett will demand in these talks and how much injury language he will accept. The first point we must remember is that while Lackey came to Boston at 5/$82.5 he was a free agent and required top dollar. The Red Sox know that 2010 will include Beckett in the fold, but if Beckett wants long term security he might have to give up a few dollars.

Another point is that a new contract would up his payment in 2010. He is currently set to be paid $12.5 million this year, but any extension would likely include a solid raise in the 2010 season.

This Thank You Is Huge

Our rivals/enemies/counterparts 210 miles to the South came out with their own bit of news on the heels of CC Sabathia’s poor 2 inning performance today (who cares if it’s spring stats, it’s still fun to say!).

With the contracts of future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in their final year this season, there’s been much talk about what kinds of contracts the Yankees should extend to two icons that have been with the franchise for close to 15 years. Let’s take a snapshot of both players from the point they signed their 2001 contracts.

Derek Jeter has averaged 18.9 million per year during his 10 year contract, reaching as high as 21 million this year. Since 2002, he’s been worth 40.1 Wins Above Replacement, averaging about 132.2 million dollars of market value. During that same time period, Jeter has been paid 157 million dollars. While it’s not the return on investment you should see from a player who never officially reached free agency, it’s a testament to what Jeter has been able to accomplish over the years, as the odds normally say a large long term contract like this usually follow the path the Cubs are enduring with Soriano.

Is Tampa Bay pitching overrated?

While Tampa Bay has had plenty of named talent over the last few years from Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and then David Price came along. This along with a top offense and elite talent has led to their recent success in the AL East. Perhaps overvalued is a bit harsh, but they have several pitching changes and again compared to their peers in the division have some flaws.

Departing this year will be the presence of Kazmir at the top of the rotation, but that shouldn’t be a bad thing. His walk rate was always high and with the drop in velocity it’s likely the drop in strikeouts is going to stick around. He is surely not the ace of seasons before.

That leaves James Shields as the team ace and that is a good start. He was the ninth most valuable pitcher in the AL last year based on pitching runs above replacement. There were some cracks in his season though as his walk rate climbed, but not an extreme amount and should regress in 2010.

AL West Sleepers

Buried in the West are many talented breakout candidates. Some of the more interesting in the league, many have been relegated to former prospect status, while others are just building a name for themselves.

Anaheim Angels of California

This team is a bit difficult to pinpoint as most of the players are already somewhat established. Though Joel Pineiro could fit in simply because he is, potentially, a one-year wonder, he’s still enough of a credible asset to disqualify himself as a sleeper. There are a couple, however, that deserve some serious notice.

3B Brandon Wood: Wood is probably best known for the annual merry-go-round he and the Angels play on – sending the prospect up, down, and around through the organization – never letting him stay in one place. Though he’s done precious little at the major league level to warrant a 25-man roster spot – or starting gig, no less – he’s been so good in the upper minors for so long that at some point you just have to let the guy get his hacks in…

Scheduling Highlights

With opening day less than one month (wooo!) away, I wanted to highlight some points in the season to pay a little more attention to. Every season has easy stretches, tough road trips, and high leverage situations.

Monday April 12th @ Minnesota
The Red Sox play guests of honor at the home opener of Target Field, the new home of the Minnesota Twins. With no contract yet in sight, story-lines will surround the possibility of Joe Mauer’s final year with the Twins, and the coincidence that a potential suitor rolls into town on the heels of stalled or cancelled negotiations. Also, speculations of Target Field’s park factors will be begin to arise. While rumor has it that Target Field is not going to repeat an opening month full of laughable power as Yankee Stadium did last year, the park’s dimensions should be favorable for Minnesota’s right handed power bats. Keep an eye on Cuddyer in fantasy drafts.

Evan Brunell’s 2010 MLB Predictions: Does Boston win it?

As the advent of spring training games are upon us, I thought I’d kick off everyone’s favorite little exercise by providing my own personal predictions as to how I think the season will shake out. Now, before I do so, a word of caution: predictions can change daily based on events. Heck, my predictions change multiple times a week. But I’ve gotta make predictions at some point, right? Point being, I might disagree with my own predictions a week from now. Most of the time, these kind of predictions are an exercise in fallacy, but it’s not going to stop me from trying.

I don’t know why I made things harder on myself, but I set out to present an exact record. This means I had to go into a spreadsheet and make sure all the wins and losses totaled the correct amount of games while also balancing out to a .500 record. Took me a while, but dadgum it, I did it. One thing I did not control for was the unbalanced schedule (in a total record sense), but I already strained my tenuous math skills, so I wasn’t about to complicate it further.

Click “read more” or the headline to find my predictions.

Casey Fien addition worth another look

Monday saw the Red Sox claim Casey Fien from the Detroit Tigers. Of little note is the dropping of Gaby Hernandez to clear a spot. I am a bit shocked to see a pitcher with such solid peripherals in the minors given up on by the Tigers. Perhaps there is something they know, but let’s see what Fien adds to the Red Sox.

He’s a two pitch reliever with a 91 mph fastball and a 80 mph slider thrown 25% of the time. His slider did not show well in his small sampling with a run value of -5.47 per hundred thrown, but a much bigger sample is needed to decide if it needs work. This isn’t very exciting as his speed isn’t great and with only two pitches hitters can just wait out the fastball.

His minor league numbers though show he has something to contribute. His ERA in the minors stands at 3.04 and 3.21 in Triple-A. Obviously as a reliever his sample sizes are small, but a minor league FIP of 2.86 and 3.20 in Triple-A. Then why would the Tigers give up on Fien as a reliever?

UZR Making Me Crazy

This tactic is starting to get really old.

Dear Members of the Baseball Media, before you attempt to reference a statistic you’re intentionally bashing, it would be prudent to actually learn what it is.

Our newest culprit is Chris Gasper of the Boston Globe who decided to try and tackle the subject with a completely unbiased and objective analysis.

For our viewers at home, my apologies if my last sentence overloaded your sarcasm meters. I’ll replace them if they weren’t very expensive.

While using combative and derisive language, Gasper drew comparisons of newer baseball statistics to the masses being slaves to technological advances; these very same advances that fuel his blog. Right.

I thought I’d go through Gasper’s post piece by piece and see what we could find. Come enjoy the ride!